🤔 What are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are trading environments where users can buy and sell shares representing the outcome of future events. On VibeStarter, these markets focus on SaaS startup success metrics like download milestones, user growth targets, and Hall of Fame inductions.
💡 How It Works
- • Markets are created for specific startup milestones
- • Users buy "YES" or "NO" shares based on their prediction
- • Share prices fluctuate based on market sentiment (0-100%)
- • Winners receive 100 tokens per share when markets resolve
- • All transactions use real SOL cryptocurrency
🎯 Market Types
📱 Download Milestones
Predict whether a startup will reach specific download targets (1K, 10K, 100K+) by a certain date.
👥 User Growth
Bet on monthly active user growth targets and user acquisition milestones.
🏆 Hall of Fame
Predict which startups will achieve Hall of Fame status based on exceptional performance.
⚖️ Comparison Markets
Head-to-head predictions between two similar startups on specific metrics.
🔄 AMM Pricing Model
VibeStarter uses an Automated Market Maker (AMM) model similar to decentralized exchanges. This ensures fair pricing and provides instant liquidity for all trades.
📊 Price Discovery
- • Prices adjust automatically based on supply/demand
- • More buyers push YES prices up, NO prices down
- • Logarithmic scoring ensures proper market dynamics
- • Real-time price updates reflect market sentiment
💧 Liquidity Provision
- • Markets maintain constant liquidity
- • No need to wait for matching orders
- • Price impact calculated before trades
- • Slippage protection for large orders
🧮 Formula
The market price reflects the probability of a YES outcome based on current share distribution.
💰 Trading Guide
Choose a Market
Browse active prediction markets on the Markets page. Each market shows current prices, total volume, and time remaining until resolution.
Select Your Position
Choose YES if you believe the outcome will happen, NO if you don't. Review current prices and potential returns before placing your bet.
Place Your Trade
Enter your SOL amount and confirm the transaction. Your wallet will prompt for approval, and shares will appear in your portfolio once confirmed on-chain.
Wait for Resolution
Markets resolve automatically when the deadline passes or the outcome is determined. Winning shares are redeemed for full value, losing shares become worthless.
⚠️ Risks & Rewards
⚠️ Risks
- • Total Loss: Wrong predictions lose your entire investment
- • Market Risk: Prices can change rapidly based on new information
- • Crypto Risk: SOL price volatility affects real-world value
- • Liquidity: Large trades may have significant price impact
- • Resolution: Markets depend on accurate data verification
💎 Rewards
- • High Returns: Successful predictions can yield 2x-10x+ returns
- • Early Edge: First movers get better prices
- • Knowledge Advantage: Industry expertise provides edge
- • Instant Liquidity: Trade in/out anytime before resolution
- • Compound Growth: Reinvest winnings in new markets
🚀 Advanced Features
📊 Portfolio Tracking
View all your active positions, track P&L, and analyze your prediction performance across different market types and time periods.
🤖 Advanced Orders
Coming soon: limit orders, stop-losses, and conditional triggers for sophisticated trading strategies.
🏅 Leaderboards
Compete with other traders on monthly and all-time leaderboards. Top performers receive exclusive badges and priority access to new markets.